Odds could change if turnout on polling day is higher than usual; punters say that would point to a close fight.
The Munugode Assembly constituency. (South First)
The odds on a TRS victory in the 3 November Munugode bypoll have improved over the past week, according to punters involved with the world of unofficial betting.
Just a week back, the odds on a TRS win in Munugode were at 1:1.25. On Monday, 31 October, the odds had improved to 1:15, one punter told South First.
In other words, a week ago, you would have received ₹1.25 for every rupee you bet. Now, you will only get only ₹1.15.
One can only speculate whether the improvement in the odds has anything to do with the botched operation allegedly mounted by the BJP to lure away four TRS MLAs with offers of huge sums of money, positions and protection from central investigation and tax authorities.
Even as the saffron party has vehemently denied any involvement in the incident, the TRS has been going to town over it, accusing the BJP of adopting underhand means to “topple democratically elected” governments.
In a rally in Munugode on Sunday, Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao also hinted that the party was in possession of more evidence that would not only nail the BJP’s lies but “would shake the seat of power in Delhi”.
While the odds on a TRS victory have improved, those on the final 1-2-3 outcome of the by-election remain even, and have not changed over the week. The punters expected the 1-2-3 outcome to be: TRS-BJP-Congress.
A result that is at variance with this 1-2-3 outcome will fetch you double the money, that is the odds are at 1:2 if the BJP wins or if the Congress comes in second.
In this light, the punters are keeping a close watch on the campaign and ground reports over the past few days that the Congress campaign has seen a resurgence and is finding some traction.
The odds can still change, If the TRS campaign gathers more momentum, it is likely the odds on the party’s winning may improve further.
However, one punter said that the most likely factor to have an impact on the odds now would be the turnout on election day.
A higher turnout and usual would imply a much tighter race than expected, and may well impact the odds on a TRS victory.
