More challenges for Congress after Munugode bypoll verdict as BJP eyes its leaders, cadre, votes

ByAnusha Ravi Sood

Published Nov 07, 2022 | 9:30 AMUpdatedNov 07, 2022 | 9:30 AM

Rahul Gandhi-led Bharat Jodo Yatra was accorded a rousing welcome as it entered Telangana on Sunday, 23 October (Twitter/Bharat Jodo)

The Congress didn’t expect to win the Munugode bypoll. When its incumbent MLA — Komatireddy Rajagopal Reddy — quit the party in August and joined the BJP, it became clear that the party was set to lose a considerable portion of its cadre base, vote bank and influence in Munugode.

But what the party didn’t expect was not being able to poll even one-sixth of the total votes, causing its candidate, Palvai Sravanthi, to lose her security deposit. There have been five bypolls in Telangana since the 2018 Assembly polls and the Congress has lost all of them, even losing security deposits in three.

For a party that is credited with the formation of Telangana — a move that wiped it out entirely in Andhra Pradesh — Congress, as primary Opposition party, should have been the largest beneficiary of any anti-incumbency against the TRS government which has been in power for two terms now.

However, already riddled with factionalism, defections, and an acute resource crunch, the Congress in Telangana may now well see an exodus of its leaders and cadre to the BJP and TRS.

While one bypoll cannot be a yardstick to assess the political mood of a state, the fight put up by the BJP — the burden of which was largely borne by its candidate Rajagopal Reddy — should be a cause for concern to the Congress, a warning shot.

Related: Bharat Jodo Yatra rekindles faint hopes of Congress revival in Andhra

BJP makes a point

Despite losing the election to TRS, BJP has shown that it can give stiff competition to the ruling dispensation, even if in a seat where the saffron party had no cadre, vote base, influence, or even its own leaders.

The Sunday, 6 November, result in Munugode has effectively furthered the narrative BJP has been trying to build in Telangana — that it is the BJP, and not the Congress, which is best placed to challenge the TRS in the 2023 Assembly elections.

While the BJP’s performance in Munugode was largely due to Rajagopal Reddy’s personal influence and resources, the party — that can neither boast of influential leaders nor cadre in the state — has positioned itself as the right venue for leaders dissatisfied with their parties to contest polls from.

BJP taking the TRS head-on in the bypoll and coming a creditable second — with barely 4 percentage points separating their vote shares — is its first step towards emulating the West Bengal story of replacing the primary Opposition party. In Telangana’s case, the BJP hopes to replace the Congress, acquiring its leaders, cadres, vote share and eventually seats in the long run.

Eroding vote share

In the 2018 Assembly polls, Congress, whose candidate was Rajagopal Reddy, had won in Munugode with 97,239 votes and 48.9 percent vote share. On Sunday, Sravanthi polled 23,906 votes securing 10.58 percent vote share.

Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee (TPCC) president A Revanth Reddy with the Congress' Munugode by-election candidate Palvai Sravanthi on Friday, 14 October, 2022. (Supplied)

Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee (TPCC) president A Revanth Reddy with the Congress’ Munugode by-election candidate Palvai Sravanthi on Friday, 14 October, 2022. (Supplied)

The BJP had stood a distant third in 2018 with just 12,725 votes and 6.40 percent vote share and TRS had polled 74,687 votes with a vote share of 37.56 per cent.

In the bypoll this time, with Rajagopal Reddy pulling its weight, BJP polled 86,697 votes with 38.38 percent vote share while TRS won with 97,006 votes with 42.95 per cent vote share. The BJP’s jump has come almost entirely from the Congress’ while TRS has gained from the support it received from the CPI and CPM parties.

“The TRS has power and the BJP has money, but Congress has neither,” an AICC office bearer told South First during campaign for the Munugode bypoll.

“Both parties have unlimited resources to spend, but Congress doesn’t. Moreover, our own leaders don’t want to work sincerely because they see Munugode as Revanth Reddy’s election and not a party election,” the senior Congress leader added.

In one statement, the leader had captured everything that ails the party in Telangana.

Excuses galore

Despite Munugode being a former Congress stronghold, despite the party fielding Sravanthi -— whose father was a popular and loved leader in the Constituency — and despite the Bharat Jodo Yatra led by Rahul Gandhi still passing through the state, purportedly “energising grassroots level cadres”, the Congress lost miserably.

While party leaders blame it all on inducements offered by the TRS and BJP, insiders also point to Rajagopal Reddy “buying out Congress office bearers” to transfer their support to him. It didn’t help that Rajagopal Reddy’s brother Venkat Reddy — Bhongir MP from the Congress — openly endorsed his brother instead of the party’s official candidate.

TRS took up the Munugode bypoll as a matter of prestige after having lost Dubbaka and Huzurabad to the BJP with Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao addressing a massive poll rally and TRS Working President KT Rama Rao personally strategising on-ground and online campaigns.

Related: Can Rahul Gandhi help end factionalism in Telangana Congress?

Whither national leadership?

On the other hand, despite walking in Telangana for Bharat Jodo Yatra, neither Rahul Gandhi nor other national leaders, including newly-elected AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge, campaigned for the bypolls, insisting that the yatra was not a “political exercise”.

The BJP has unlimited resources and the hunger to make inroads into Telangana, where TRS is battling anti-incumbency. But the saffron party lacks cadre and leaders.

As the public perception of the Congress as the primary Opposition party begins to wane, the BJP is keeping its doors wide open to those who want to switch sides. Other than the factionalism, retaining its leaders may be Congress’ biggest challenge in Telangana ahead of the 2023 Assembly elections.