Telangana Congress resignation hubbub is more perception politics than ground reality

There is no doubt that the Congress — which should have ideally gained the most out of the anti-incumbency factor against the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) government in the run-up to Assembly elections next year — is weakened in Telangana.

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — a virtual non-entity in the state in the previous elections — is gaining popularity.

However, the public perception of the change in this status quo seems to be far more exaggerated than it is in reality.

Perception politics versus ground reality

While headlines scream “crisis in the Congress” over the resignation of two leaders and the probable resignations of a couple more, what seems to be forgotten is defections and party-hopping is a common phenomenon in election season.

Resignations alone cannot be the yardstick to assess the ground reality of political parties and their on-ground support.

TPCC President Revanth Reddy with former AICC President Rahul Gandhi. (revanth_anumula/Twitter)

“The media keeps forgetting that a host of BJP leaders joined the TRS and the Congress in the last two months. Of the two leaders who have deserted us, one has business interests and another quit because our internal survey showed that he wouldn’t win if he was given a ticket to contest elections. Anticipating that we wouldn’t give him a ticket, he jumped ship,” an AICC office bearer told South First.

The Congress leader was referring to Rajagopal Reddy and Dr Dasoju Sravan, respectively.

“It is not just us. Even the TRS’ internal survey suggests that at least 30 sitting MLAs should be dropped. All these disgruntled elements will consider other parties, and since BJP doesn’t have any candidates, it is welcoming them. But this is happening across parties,” the senior Congress leader pointed out.

While those quitting the TRS and the Congress and joining the BJP hit the headlines hard, that isn’t the case when leaders of the BJP switch to the TRS and the Congress.

“Defections of leaders do not reflect ground realities. Politicians leave parties for a host of reasons, even those not necessarily political,” political analyst Nageshwar Rao told South First.

“From business interests to pressure from Central agencies, from peer pressure to competition in the constituency, the reasons are varied. The use of blanket terms like ‘resignation spree’ or ‘crisis in the party’ shows a lack of political understanding,” he explained.

Desertions in BJP, too

Two days before Prime Minister Narendra Modi was scheduled to land in Hyderabad to attend the BJP’s National Executive meeting on 2 July, the TRS pulled off a coup of sorts.

Four of the BJP’s corporators from the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) and two councillors — including the floor leader — from the Tandur Municipal Council joined the TRS.

This was barely a few weeks after Modi had interacted with GHMC corporators.

Just four days after the BJP’s meeting in Hyderabad, senior leader and former MLA Erra Shekhar was welcomed into the Congress by Revanth Reddy, much to the dislike of his party colleagues.

Former MLA Erra Shekhar garu of BJP & Devarakonda senior leader Bheelya Naik garu have joined #Congress today in Gandhi Bhavan.
I welcome them wholeheartedly.

We are coming in a big way whenever the elections are held under the leadership of #SoniaGandhi ji & @RahulGandhi ji. pic.twitter.com/AfgTDOqMf5

— Revanth Reddy (@revanth_anumula) July 7, 2022

In June, former labour minister and BJP leader Boda Janardhan returned to the Congress.

BJP office bearers in Siddipet, including the district general secretary, joined the TRS in the same month, as did a few Congress workers.

Noteworthy leaders from the TRS also switched loyalties to the BJP and the Congress.

BJP looks to win perception battle

The BJP is on a perception-management override in Telangana.

While its local leaders are on the ground with rallies and meetings to build support, its central leadership is looking to enhance its candidate base by wooing disgruntled members of the TRS and the Congress.

“It’s not like we have a dedicated team sitting and strategising to go pick up leaders from other parties,” the BJP’s national vice-president DK Aruna told South First.

“Any political party will see what is happening in other parties and try to use opportunities to their benefit. There is anti-incumbency against the TRS, and there is dissidence in the Congress. It is an open secret. We are simply taking the opportunity that emerged because of their failures,” he explained.

Aruna, a former minister who belonged to the Congress, shifted to the BJP in 2019 citing a lack of leadership in the party.

Telangana Congress leaders during public meeting at Munugode assembly constituency. (revanth_anumula/Twitter)

Sources in the Congress insisted that the BJP has been engaged in creating a perception that the next Assembly election in Telangana was a “TRS versus BJP” affair when, right now, on the ground, it is still a battle between the TRS and the Congress.

“The BJP has been planting surveys, carried out by its own people, in the media to show its vote share has beaten that of the Congress in Telangana. We anticipate more such perception battles from the BJP,” a member of the Congress’ election management committee told South First.

The BJP, while realising that it has neither the candidates nor the dedicated voter base in Telangana, is welcoming leaders with individual popularity in the run-up to the election in the hope of improving its position in the state.

“In the run-up to the election, there will be defections from all parties, including the BJP. The Congress is becoming weaker and the BJP is improving its standing, but people on the ground, and not the perception in hollow media, will decide,” Rao explained.

“The recent resignations cannot be seen to mean that the Congress is losing ground in Telangana. If that is the logic we apply, should we then say the BJP is going to lose Hyderabad because four of its corporators joined TRS?” he asked.